OECD: “Less Trade” to Undermine Global Incomes and Job Growth

“Less trade” will directly undermine global incomes and job growth, according to a stark warning from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD has significantly lowered its global economic growth projections, now anticipating a decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, explicitly linking this downturn to reduced international commerce.
The OECD’s latest outlook report states unequivocally that “weakened economic prospects will be felt around the world, with almost no exception.” It predicts that “lower growth and less trade will hit incomes and slow job growth,” signaling a pervasive negative impact on livelihoods globally. The United States, Canada, Mexico, and China are specifically identified as major contributors to this anticipated global economic decline, highlighting the role of their trade policies.
Further exacerbating the situation, the OECD warns that “protectionism” will put pressure on inflation, causing costs for goods and services to rise. This inflationary trend, combined with already high debt levels, poses a severe risk for developing nations, which may struggle with refinancing needs and increased borrowing costs, further impacting incomes and employment.
In response to this grim outlook, the OECD advises central banks to “remain vigilant” regarding inflation, even if immediate interest rate hikes are not expected. Crucially, it also advocates for increased investment to revive economies and improve public finances, though it acknowledges the difficulty for governments already burdened by debt to finance such crucial initiatives that could boost trade and growth.