In a bold move to dictate the terms of post-treaty stability, Russian President Vladimir Putin has unilaterally declared that the old New START limits will remain in force for Russia for one year. The announcement is an attempt to establish a new status quo and challenge the U.S. to conform to it.
The terms were laid out as a framework for “predictability and restraint.” By committing to the 1,550-warhead cap, Putin is effectively saying that this is what a stable and responsible nuclear posture looks like in the absence of a formal agreement.
The challenge for the U.S. to accept these terms was explicit. Putin stated that this framework is only “viable” if the United States also operates within it, thereby attempting to corner Washington into either accepting Russia’s definition of stability or being labeled a disruptive force.
The incentive for agreeing to these terms, Putin argued, is a return to negotiations. He suggested that a shared understanding of the basic rules could pave the way for a “substantive strategic dialogue” aimed at formalizing a new security architecture.
Russia has now published its draft of the new rules. The pen has been passed to the United States, and its next actions will be seen as its edits—or its complete rejection—of Putin’s proposed terms for stability.