The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026, raising it slightly to 3.1% from an earlier estimate of 3.0%. Despite this upward adjustment, the projection remains below the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025. Looking ahead, the IMF anticipates the global economy will expand by 3.4% in 2027.
The IMF attributes part of this economic resilience to investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which are helping to counterbalance the adverse effects of higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, the benefits of AI investment are not evenly spread, with the United States and China leading in demand for imported computer chips and other AI-related technology, representing more than three-quarters of global demand.
Despite the positive growth forecast, the IMF cautions that the global financial system faces several risks. These include the potential for a market correction in AI-related stocks, rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats. Additionally, the organization highlights the potential impact of AI on the workforce, estimating that around 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected by changes in tasks, job quality, or employment levels.
Inflation remains a concern, with global inflation expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before decreasing to 4.1% in 2027. The forecast assumes that by March, oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume and demand for AI-related products will stabilize.
Among major economies, the United States is projected to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, while China’s economy is expected to expand by 4.5% this year. India is predicted to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy, with a growth rate of 7% in 2026, down slightly from 7.7% in 2025. Emerging and developing economies are forecast to grow by 3.7% in 2026, accelerating to 4.4% in 2027.
The outlook is less optimistic for the Middle East and Central Asia, where economies are expected to contract this year before recovering in 2027. In light of these challenges, the IMF advises governments to bolster public finances and manage rising debts, as borrowing costs remain high and geopolitical uncertainties continue to cloud the global economic landscape.