Europe’s aviation sector may encounter a significant jet fuel shortage in the coming months, as regional stocks have plummeted to a seven-year low. Despite an increase in imports from Asia and other global suppliers, analysts predict a deficit of approximately 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of the year.
The decline in jet fuel reserves is evident in the key trading hubs of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp, where inventories have reached critically low levels as of the week ending September 10. This situation unfolds against a backdrop of broader market disruptions fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting oil and fuel supplies.
Increased imports from Asia, which have surged to around 129,000 barrels per day in September, alongside contributions from Canada, Nigeria, and the United States, have somewhat mitigated immediate scarcity fears. However, the Swedish Energy Agency has cautioned that while gasoline and diesel supplies remain stable, Europe and Sweden could face short-term constraints specific to aviation fuel.
Further compounding the situation, recent attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia have contributed to increased oil and gas prices across Europe. Such developments underscore the vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical instability, adding pressure to already strained supply chains.