Mexico is bracing for potential disruptions in its diesel supply following U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of a proposal that could limit or halt U.S. diesel exports. This policy shift comes amid a significant rise in global energy prices, prompting concerns about Mexico’s heavy reliance on U.S. diesel imports, which account for over 40% of its demand.
In June 2026, Mexico imported an average of 288,000 barrels of diesel per day from the United States, according to data from U.S. energy statistics. The proposed export restrictions could force Mexico to seek diesel from more distant markets, escalating transportation costs and potentially impacting fuel prices, inflation, and various key industries such as transportation, agriculture, and mining.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has attempted to reassure the public by stating that domestic production remains sufficient and that the government will continue to support diesel prices. She highlighted the role of Mexico’s refinery network, including the Dos Bocas facility in Tabasco, in maintaining supply levels. Additionally, Mexico is upholding fuel subsidies and a voluntary pricing agreement with retailers to curtail the effects of rising international energy costs.
Energy experts are advising Mexico to prepare for possible supply disruptions by diversifying its diesel import sources, boosting domestic refining capabilities, and enhancing fuel storage infrastructure. These measures are seen as essential to mitigating the impact of any potential interruption from the country’s largest diesel supplier.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing volatility in global energy markets, exacerbated by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which have also driven up diesel prices in the United States. As uncertainty looms over U.S. energy policy, Mexico is keen on reducing its vulnerability to any disruptions stemming from changes in U.S. diesel export strategies.